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Global air cargo demand
now seems certain to soar well into 2015, and analysts believe Asian carriers
and handlers are best placed to prosper.
 “Volumes
have stayed strong throughout all of 2014 and we see no reason for this
not to continue into the New Year,” said Stewart Sinclair, managing
director of Suvarnabhumi Airport ground handler Bangkok Flight Services.
“There have been some additional charters related to the west Coast
congestion, but in general we have seen continued strong volumes throughout
the year.”
A new report from HSBC forecasts that air
cargo demand will provide a major boost to Asian carriers next year. “We
forecast a significantly better 2015 for Asian airlines,” said HSBC.
“We expect a pick-up in underlying demand, boosted by the impact
of lower fuel surcharges, to comfortably absorb new capacity during this
upswing. We believe the best-positioned routes will be intercontinental
and intra-Asia Pacific trunk.”
HSBC said U.S. west coast port congestion
had caused some shift back from sea to air. With congestion expected to
continue “well into 2015,” this would see a strong start to
the year for air cargo.
“As only 2 percent of cargoes go via
air and 98 percent by sea, only a modest diversion from sea can be quite
supportive of air freight,” said the report. “While there
is always very little visibility in air cargo, the chronic nature of the
U.S. west coast port congestion is providing more prolonged support for
air freight volumes. Port delays are creating uncertainty and this means
there is an increasing tendency to ship a portion of popular products
via air to ensure inventory levels can be managed.
“Our discussions with liners and industry
participants suggest congestion will take time to resolve and implies
a continued migration from container trade to airfreight in 1Q15.”
HSBC’s analysis is supported by the
latest bellwether air cargo figures from Asia. Cathay Pacific, usually
a good indicator of performance by Asian airlines’ freight departments,
reported a 12 percent year-on-year increase in cargo handled in November,
and volumes were up 11.9 percent over the first 11 months of the year.
HKIA also became the first airport to ever
handle 400,000 tons in a month during November 2014. Hactl, one of the
hub’s leading handlers, said it had broken both daily, weekly, and
monthly records in November due to growing U.S. west coast port congestion,
traditional traffic peaks related to Thanksgiving and Christmas, and the
launch of new mobile products.
 Julia
Yan, general manager, Strategic Planning & Development of Airport
Authority Hong Kong, predicted that cargo demand would continue to grow
through December. “We expect across-the-board growth in traffic
volume to continue as we approach the end of the year,” she added.
HSBC said that air cargo markets were now
settling down after growing by about 2x global GDP growth from 1979-99,
before slowing over the last decade due partly to a loss of market share
from air to sea. “As the relationship between economic growth and
air cargo volumes has changed there is less visibility on demand,”
said the report. “We believe air cargo volumes will now grow at
about 1x GDP growth. As we expect the key source markets for the Asian
airlines to grow GDP by 4.4 percent in 2015 (estimate), this implies freight
volume growth of 4-5 percent.”
However, Cathy Roberson, a senior analyst
at Transport Intelligence, was more cautious on air freight demand in
2015 than many of her peers. She predicted Q1 would start strong for airfreight
and for integrators thanks to inventory replenishment and holiday returns.
“Demand should then level off once the Chinese New Year passes and
possibly be subdued due to a cautious economic environment through mid-late
second quarter,” she added.
“Integrators will probably continue
to see good demand particularly due to e-commerce and will look to build
out capabilities to enhance services to meet this growing trend.”
SkyKing |
