 A
pre-Chinese New Year peak season? Air freight managers
certainly hope so. But while some Asian markets could
see dynamic growth in 2016, the overall market is expected
to be relatively flat.
China’s
official holiday celebrations to mark Lunar New Year
in 2016 are due to start on February 7th and last until
the 13th, but in reality many workers in coastal factories
will depart for distant villages earlier than the 7th
and return far later, if they return at all. The upshot
for most production lines is a complete closedown for
at least a week, but output levels are usually reduced
for 3-4 weeks in total. For retailers, the race to get
urgent products out of China before the shutdown is
often intense and many fall back on air freight to ensure
they have adequate supplies as the holiday approaches.
Ravishankar
Mirle, (right) Vice President of Cargo Commercial -
Far East & Australasia at Emirates SkyCargo, told FlyingTypers that markets had been slow to
pick up in the first weeks of January, “but we
foresee a traditional pre-Chinese New Year rush for
a very short duration.”
 Mirle’s
European counterparts echoed this prognostication. “We
expect to see an increase in demand starting mid-January
through to Chinese New Year,” said Frank Naeve,
(left) Vice President Asia-Pacific at Lufthansa Cargo.
According to Naeve, most of the extra freight would
be moved through China’s main gateways, but he
also predicted other markets, such as Vietnam and Singapore,
could benefit.
A
spokesman for Air France KLM Martinair Cargo said this
year’s early New Year (last year the New Year
holidays started on February 18) would give January
volumes a boost. “Chinese New Year will be sooner
this year, with the main positive impact expected in
January and negative impact expected in February, whereas
last year the major impact was in March with a drop
of the European market above 30 percent year-over-year,”
he said. “More than ever the market is very volatile
and difficult to predict, so it’s difficult to
say what will be the intensity of the pre-CNY peak and
how deep the drop will be post-CNY. As always, reactivity,
more than forecasting, will be the name of the game.”
Looking
further forward, the spokesman also said air freight
markets would have to cope with structural overcapacity
during 2016, which would make maintaining yields difficult.
Naeve
said forecasting future air cargo demand was never easy,
because total demand consisted of multiple markets with
specific requirements driven by customers and industries.
“So we need to understand these requirements and
offer high quality products and services as well as
remain flexible with our network so that we can tackle
opportunities as they arise,” he said. “Generally,
we expect a solid year. There are risks but also chances
to further develop our business.
“We
think that China will remain a very important market
and expect the performance to be better than some experts
are expecting. In addition, Vietnam and Bangladesh offer
attractive opportunities moving forward.”
Mirle
said he expected 2016 demand to be “relatively
flat” overall, but predicted that Asian countries
focused on manufacturing hi-tech commodities would see
growth. However, he warned, “the challenge in
2016 in Asia will be the lack of consistent demand and
shorter peaks.”
He
added: “There will be pressure on yield due to
excess capacity and weakness in demand. However, at
SkyCargo, our network, aircrafts and product offering
are key elements which we will be leveraging to power
our growth.”
He
also said that Emirates SkyCargo would continue to grow
its capacity as the airline received new aircraft and
expanded its facilities at Dubai International Airport.
“We will also continue to expand our network and
have already announced plans to launch services to Yinchuan
(INC) and Zhengzhou (CGO) in China, and Panama in Central
America, as well as Cebu and Clark in the Philippines
in 2016,” he added.
SkyKing
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