Vol. 9 No. 18                                                             WE COVER THE WORLD                                        Friday February 5, 2010

Infrastructure Challenges India

     During this week as transportation professionals gathered in Mumbai for Air Cargo India here is an exclusive report outside the cordiality hand shaking, back slapping world of hospitality ambience that offers the latest news about facts and figures-driven information about India’s air, rail and port infrastructure that many consider the number one issue of doing business there as 2010 begins.
     The Indian government has announced a series of measures aimed at attracting foreign investment into the Indian economy and assisting with the restructuring of the nation’s somewhat decrepit infrastructure architecture.
     To this end, the government has provided mechanisms that allow for private investment in public schemes, and has advised that the government will participate in the financing of these, typically to the tune of about 30 percent of the required investment, with the balance to be generated by the private sector.
     For the first time, the government has included private investment as a key source of infrastructure financing, as described in India’s 11th Five Year Plan.
     The Indian government invested USD$218 billion in infrastructure during the five-year period of 2002 to 2007. This represented a spending equivalent of about 3 percent of India’s GDP. From 2009 to 2012, the government intends to spend about USD$514 billion on infrastructure, and assuming a GDP growth rate of around 9 percent during this period, the government will invest 9 percent of its GDP in its infrastructure. This will effectively triple its fiscal spending. That amount, even if spent well, is not enough to satisfy the nation’s needs. To combat this problem, the government has identified the private sector as the majority participant in India’s redevelopment.
     This is a quite different model from China, which ensured in most cases that infrastructure projects were state financed, retaining control of infrastructure ownership, thus limiting the opportunities for foreign investors. This forced many of them into long-term joint ventures with unwanted or unnecessary state-owned partners, while the state later added additional tax and employment burdens to foreign investors. In China, investors got into infrastructure development projects because of government.
     In India, investors should be getting into infrastructure projects because the government involvement is being decreased. It is not necessary to partner with an Indian state-owned enterprise.
     In this way, the Indian government has finally made the problem of its infrastructure an opportunity for foreign investors. The scale of the projects is massive.

AIRPORTS
     India has a total of 454 airports (including grass runways), of which 16 have international status. Of these, the Airports Authority of India (AAI) owns and operates 97. The AAI has stated it aims at upgrading all of these as well as adding new locations to better unify the country within the next 12 years. This requires infrastructure investment in terminals, runways and related construction to full operational and passenger capability at over 500 airports.
     The government has stated several times its intention to attract private investment into this sector, and many domestic and multinational players have been showing interest in the projected growth of India’s aviation sector. Much of this is within airport development and management. Some of these include India’s private airlines, among them Jet, Sahara, Kingfisher, Deccan, and Spicejet, who collectively account for about 60 percent of India’s domestic passenger traffic.
     Some, such as Kingfisher, have now started international flights, while others will follow shortly once regulatory procedures are completed. India is now poised to meet international standards in the development and infrastructure of its airports, as any recent traveler to Delhi, Mumbai or Chennai will testify. The government is planning modernization of the airports to establish a standard, while newly developed airports will help release pressure on the existing airports in the country.
     The Delhi and Mumbai airports are in the process of being upgraded, while Bangalore and Hyderabad will also soon be upgraded to international airport. They are all earmarked for privatization once construction work is completed.      Several regional airports are also set for significant upgrading to international standards, including Amritsar, Gutuahati, Ahmedabad, Goa, Chennai and Cochin.
     According to the AAI, investment of USD$8.5 billion has been planned for the development of Indian airports during the 11th Five Year Plan. The airports in Mumbai and Delhi have already been privatized and are now being upgraded at an estimated investment of USD$4 billion.
     The AAI plans to invest an additional USD$3.07 billion over the next five years. From this, 43 percent will be for the three metro airports in Kolkata, Chennai and Trivandrum. The remainder will be invested in upgrading other non-metro airports and in the modernization of the existing aeronautical facilities, such as radar and related equipment upgrades. The Ministry of Civil Aviation has reported the following statistics and figures:

  Passenger traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 15% in the next five years; it is estimated that traffic will reach 100 million passengers per annum by 2010
  Cargo traffic to grow at over 20% per annum; over the next five years, crossing 3.3 million tons by the end of this year.
  Major investments planned in new airports and up gradation of existing airports
  100% FDI is permissible for existing airports; FIPB approval required for FDI beyond 74%.
  100% FDI under automatic route is permissible for Greenfield airports.
  49% FDI is permissible in domestic airlines under the automatic route, but not by foreign airline companies.
  100% equity ownership by non-resident Indians (NRIs) is permitted.
  AAI Act amended to provide legal framework for airport privatization.
  100% tax exemption for airport projects for a period of 10 years

     The “open sky” policy of the government and rapid air traffic growth have resulted in the entry of several new privately owned airlines and increased frequency/flights for international airlines; foreign airlines currently have the lion’s share of passenger traffic into and out of India as the approvals procedures for obtaining a license to operate in India as a foreign airline is just two years, as opposed to five for Indian domestic carriers operating international routes.

RAIL
     Investment is needed to improve track, rolling stock and delivery times. At present passenger trains manage an average of 50 kph, while freight just 22 kph. Indian Railways has long been regarded as the backbone of the socioeconomic growth of India. The country has the world’s fourth largest rail network and the second largest in Asia after China. Indian Railways has recently attracted immense global media and corporate attention due to its turnaround to profitability, and has been consistently recording buoyant growth rates over the last few years as India’s population continues to increase.
      According to India Railways, the government estimated the cash surplus for 2007-08 before dividend and net revenue at USD $6.17 billion and USD $4.53 billion respectively. This places Indian Railways in a better position than many Fortune 500 companies.
     India Railways stated that they earmarked about USD$7.91 billion in 2008-09 for an ambitious plan. The plan includes a total budgetary support of USd$1.66 billion that includes USd$163.33 million from the Central Road Fund. This plan has been slated to turn sizable profits running into the billions of dollars for the years 2010 and beyond.
     Indian Railways has identified the following initiatives to help transform the viability of Indian rail into a commercially acceptable operational model:

  Increases in income through advertising on all Rajdhani (luxury express coaches), with the cost of advertising being around USD$1.26 million per train.
  Introduction of new generation trains that would be fuel-efficient, recyclable and have low-emission to generate certified emission reduction credits.
  Construction of a dedicated freight corridor, with an investment of USD$81.92 million for 2008-09 and USD$614.40 million slated for 2009-10.
  Renewal of 44.5 million pre-stressed concrete (PSC) sleepers set for open line work.
  Technological upgrades and modernization for higher operating efficiency.
  Development of PPP in new routes, railway stations, logistics parks, cargo aggregation and warehouses.
  Development of 100 budget hotels with private participation in the vicinity of railway stations.
  Installation of Wi-Fi to provide wireless access at 500 stations
  Introduction of marketing rights for advertising on railway tickets and reservation charts.
  Establishment of integrated logistic parks on unused lands.
  Development of agri-retail hubs, cold storage houses, multi-purpose warehouses on surplus land with the railways.
  Training of railway managers to meet future challenges, Indian Railways is planning to set an international management institute in New Delhi.
  Renewal of over 2941 kilometers of rail, which will require 3.39 million tons of rail steel, and over 2,382 kilometers of pre-stressed concrete sleeper renewal.
  Implementation of dynamic pricing policy, tariff rationalization, non-peak season incremental freight discount scheme, empty flow direction freight.
  Discount schemes, loyalty discount schemes and long-term freight discount schemes among others to boost capacity utilization levels.

     Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Railways, increases of freight and cargo in both domestic and international routes have placed considerable stress on capacity on the two main Delhi-Mumbai and Delhi-Kolkata lines. The government has decided to build dedicated freight corridors in the Western and Eastern high-density routes to cater for this deficit. The investment is expected to be about (USD$4.9 billion). Surveys and project reports are in progress and work is expected to commence within the coming year.
     Previously, containerization was operated under a state monopoly, CONCOR. Facing the increasing containerization of cargo and freight, this sector has now been liberalized and is open to competition. Private sector entities may now either partner with or compete with CONCOR. The government has stated that 14 applicants have currently submitted applications seeking permission for container train operation, all of which have been approved.

PORTS
     There is a notorious delay in turnaround times at Indian Ports, in Mumbai it typically takes about three days to turn a container ship around, in Shanghai it takes eight hours. Massive investment is required to combat problems with inadequate berths, road links, and related infrastructure constraints.
     The major Ports highlighted for redevelopment are namely Kandla, Mumbai, Mormugao, New Mangalore on the east coast, Cochin and Tuticorn to the South, and Chennai, Ennore, Vizag, Paradip and Kolkata on the east coast.
     With 12 major ports and 187 minor ports, the 7,517 kilometer-long Indian coastline plays a key role in maritime transport amongst international trade capabilities.
     The Indian government reported that traffic handled at India’s major ports during April 2008 to January 2009 reached 436,686 units. The ports situation in India therefore offers tremendous scope for the development of international maritime transport both for passenger and cargo handling.
     According to the Department of Shipping, the government of India has targeted an increase in the cargo handling capacity of major ports by 200 percent to reach 1.5 billion metric tons by the year 2012.
     They aim to achieve this through an investment of USD$25 billion through public-private partnerships. An independent credit rating report focusing on Indian ports and maritime transport estimated that port capacity will grow by 160 percent over the 2011–12 period. Cargo handling at the major ports is projected to grow at 7.7 percent annually to 2011-12, while cargo traffic is estimated to reach 877 million tons by 2011-12. Containerized cargo is expected to grow at 15.5 percent over seven years. The new foreign trade policy sees India’s share of global exports doubling in the next five years to USD$150 billion. A large portion of newly generated foreign trade is expected to be via shipping, taking an estimated 95 percent by volume and 70 percent by value of India’s total trade.
     The government has undertaken the expansion and modernization of ports on a priority basis as part of its initiatives in the up gradation of India’s infrastructure achieving the targeted growth rate. According to the Ministry of Shipping, this includes numerous plans:

  Formulation of a national maritime development policy to facilitate private investment, improve service quality and promote competitiveness. USD$11.33 billion has been allocated for the same.
  An investment of more than USD$9.07 billion to be made by 2015 for 111 shipping sector projects.
  In 2008–09, the Ministry of Shipping launched 10 major expansion projects at an estimated investment of USD$1.06 billion, 60% of which was allocated for the Chennai mega container terminal.
  Permission for 100% foreign direct investment for port development projects under the automatic route.
  100% income tax exemption is provided for a period of 10 years for port developmental projects.
  The opening up of all the areas of port operation for private sector participation.
  Increase in the rail connectivity of ports with the domestic market.
  The experience of operating berths through PPPs at some of the major ports in India has thus far been successful. It has been decided to expand the program and allocate new berths to be constructed through PPPs. A model concession agreement is being formulated for this purpose.
  The government has also decided to empower and enable the 12 major ports to attain world-class standards; to this end, each port is preparing a prospective plan for 20 years and an action plan for seven years.
  A high level committee has finalized the plan for improving rail-road connectivity of major ports; the plan is to be implemented within a period of three years and further changes in customs procedures are being carried out with a view to reducing the dwell time and transaction costs; the government has also delegated powers to the respective port trusts for facilitating speedier decision-making and implementation, at the same time, several measures to simplify and streamline procedure related to security and customs are been initiated.
  The National Maritime Development Program is expected to bring a total investment of over USD$120 million into port infrastructure; improvements in the scale and quality of Indian port infrastructure are recognized as significantly improving India’s competitive advantage in an increasingly globalized world.



POWER
     India requires an additional 100,000 megawatts of power by 2012. The country currently has a peak deficit of 18 percent and an overall deficit of 9 percent. While India possesses the fifth largest electricity generation capacity in the world, it has low per capita consumption at just 606 units, less than half of China’s consumption per head.
     While concerns exist over Chinese- managed projects close to India’s border areas, opportunities exist for politically neutral energy providers to service the India market.
     According to the Ministry of Power, the total installed capacity in India is calculated to be 145,554.97 megawatts. They also state that:

  Generation capacity of 122 GW; 590 billion units produced (1 unit = 1kwh) CAGR of 4.6% over the last four years.
  India has the fifth largest electricity generation capacity in the world with low per capita consumption at 606 units.
  Transmission and distribution network of 5.7 million circuit kilometers.
  Coal-fired plants constitute 57% of the installed generation capacity, followed by 25% from hydroelectric power, 10% gas-based, 3% from nuclear energy and 5% from renewable sources.

      The State Electricity Regulatory Commission has said that India possesses a vast opportunity to grow in the field of power generation, transmission, and distribution. The target of over 150,000 megawatts of hydroelectric power germination is yet to be achieved. However, by 2012, India requires an additional 100,000 megawatts of generation capacity. A huge capital investment is required to meet this target. This has resulted in numerous power generation, transmission, and distribution multinationals to establish operations in the country under the PPP program. The power sector is still experiencing a large demand-supply gap, and this has called for an effective consideration of some of strategic initiatives.      There are strong opportunities in transmission network ventures – an additional 60,000 circuit kilometers of transmission network is expected by 2012 with a total investment opportunity of about USD$200 billion.
     According to the Ministry of Power, the implementation of key reforms is likely to foster growth in all segments as follows:

  Coal based plants at pithead or coastal locations (imported coal).
  Natural gas/CNG based turbines at load centers or near gas terminals.
  Hydroelectric power potential of 150,000 MW is untapped as assessed by the government of India.
  Renovation, modernization, upgrading and life extension of old thermal and hydroelectric power plants.

     Opportunities exist in:

  Allowing foreign equity participation up to 100% in the power sector under the automatic route.
  Encouraging the private sector to set up coal, gas or liquid-based thermal projects, hydroelectric projects and wind or solar projects of any size.
  Constitution of independent state electricity regulatory commissions.
  Deregulation of the ancillary sectors such as coal.
  Introduction of the Electricity Act and the notification of the national electricity and tariff policies.
  Provision of income tax holiday for a block of 10 years in the first 15 years of operation and waiver of capital goods’ import duties on mega power projects (above 1,000 MW generation capacity)

     Unbundling of the state electricity boards (SEBs) into generation, transmission, and distribution companies for better transparency and accountability
     Initiatives the government has introduced to facilitate foreign investment in the sector under the automatic route:

  Unbundling of vertically integrated Ses.
  “Open access” to transmission and distribution network.
  Distribution circles to be privatized.
  Tariff reforms by regulatory authorities.

Gordon Feller


Nagpur, popularly known as the orange city of India, is all set to develop as the country’s first multi-modal air cargo, or express delivery services (EDS) hub. The new Nagpur airport project is expected to be completed by 2010 and targets to serve 14 million passengers and 0.87 million tons of cargo. Will it bring a new dimension to the country’s cargo industry?
     The decision to build a multi-modal cargo hub airport in Nagpur was taken four years ago as the absence of a cargo airport was coming in the way of realizing the full potential of cargo traffic growth in India leave alone its overall role in the space of trade and the economy. It must be noted that as of now there is no hub airport within a five-hour fly zone from India, while world over there are clusters of hub airports within one-to-two-hour fly zone.
     However, some recent reports have criticized the choice of Nagpur as a hub. The most notable among them is a study conducted by the Planning Commission on the integrated logistic sector of India. The study found that New Delhi is better suited to be developed as a hub rather than Nagpur. This obviously has put a question mark on this Rs 3-billion project of the Government of Maharashtra and the Maharashtra Airport Development Company Ltd (MADC). This also raises doubts on Captain Gopinath’s decision to bet on the city as the harbinger of cargo traffic.
     As per the plans, Nagpur airport will have a captive power plant and a road terminal of 60 hectares with parking spaces for 1,000 trucks. There are likely to be around 14 godowns in addition to the space dedicated for private players to develop their own warehousing facilities.
      From a geographical point of view, it is centrally located and is well-connected through road and railway networks with different parts of India. Moreover, Nagpur is located in the international flight path of major airlines. A large number of domestic airlines, including Indian Airlines, Jet Airways, Indigo and Kingfisher Airlines, are connected to Nagpur.
     Significantly, the India Post has shifted its hub to Nagpur, while some Indian freight forwarders have already established presence in the city. Deccan Express Logistics has signed a MoU with the MADC to set up a cargo base in Nagpur, for example.
      Therefore, it has the potential of not only becoming the cargo hub for India but also for the South Asia region. The existing airports like Mumbai and Delhi are getting congested, and the availability of land for setting up cargo facilities is limited.
      Even with such developments, the Planning Commission has preferred New Delhi. So will Nagpur be an error or will it carry the load of industry expectations?
     A recent survey conducted by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) along with the Indian Institute of Management (Calcutta) may give some answers. The nationwide survey of 133 express companies, 90 clients and 25 freight forwarders was aimed at understanding the feasibility of Nagpur as a hub for EDS.      The survey found that the EDS industry prefers operating on a “hub and spoke” model. When asked what determines the choice of hubs, express companies pointed out that volume of traffic is the most important factor. Availability of land and other infrastructure facilities were also taken into consideration while choosing the location of a hub. Lastly, service quality and airport costs play a major role in decision-making. The feasibility of Nagpur as a hub has to be evaluated taking all this into account.
     The findings of the survey are certainly not going in favour of Nagpur. Most express delivery companies do not have a major interest in setting up a hub in Nagpur. Even though the Express Delivery Council of India (EDCI) has a common user terminal in Delhi and Mumbai, it has not taken up a space in Nagpur.
     Ideally, hubs should be physically located closer to the area where there is maximum volume of business. In this regard, the western part of India, mainly Mumbai, receives maximum volume of consignments. It may not make business sense to fly consignments to Nagpur and then ship them back to Mumbai. Also, flying time and fuel cost to Nagpur are more than those to Delhi or Mumbai if the cargo is from western countries. In fact, some companies suggested that Bangalore could be developed as a hub with the increasing trade with ASEAN. Already, companies like Deccan Express Logistics, which have opted for space in Nagpur are also setting up similar facilities in other cities like Delhi and Hyderabad.
     Therefore, the government needs to clear policy impediments as soon as possible to make Nagpur an attractive cargo traffic destination. However, the policy muddle may put more spanners in the hub-and-spoke model. While the Ministry of Civil Aviation is trying to develop Nagpur as a hub, the proposed new Act on courier, Courier Imports and Exports (Electronic Declaration and Processing) Regulations, 2009, is restricting trans-shipment. Apart from that, the government came up with a policy in September 2007 on ground-handling that imposes restrictions on self-handling by airlines. In most international hubs, airlines are allowed to do self-handling.
     The bottom-line is that factors like land allotment and other easements pertaining to infrastructure development are not strong enough to bring in traffic and volumes for business. Ultimately, it is up to the express companies to decide where they would like to locate their hubs.
     So how does one make it work? In order to build Nagpur as an ideal destination to handle cargo movements, some trade incentives should be offered. What we see is that the Ministry of Civil Aviation has taken a step in that direction. It has proposed a five-year exemption of all airport and navigation charges for both domestic and international airlines. This may increase the attractiveness of Nagpur. Hopefully, it will achieve the desired results as well.
Arpita Mukherjee, Partha Pratim Pal and Subrata Mitra

Setty Pioneered India Flight

     JR Tata is generally acknowledged as first India pilot to gain certification but there is little doubt that a much overlooked pioneer Srirama Venkatasubba, (SV) Setty (right) was India's first pilot and aircraft designer.
     In an interview a few years back with Times of India, Jayaprakash G N, the great grandson of Setty says that he has proof including papers and recorded conversations with aviators and others that JV was a pilot before JR Tata, and beyond that was also instrumental in creating crucial design elements of the Avro 500 that later under various advances and further development went on to great fame during WW I and early European passenger flight.
     "Setty, born in 1879, was the first Indian aircraft designer, pilot and aviator,” says Jayaprakash.
     “He was the first to design and fly the aircraft that came to be known as Avro Duigan," he says.
     “An article from 1912 in The Modern Review Journal published from Calcutta under the title “The Indian Aviator” and another 1912 London interview of Setty, both recovered from Kolkata's Gothel library, reveal Setty's role in designing the Avro Duigan and Avro 504.
     “Setty, worked for Avro in London between 1911-1912,” noted The Indian Aviator piece.
     "There was a technical snag in an aircraft ordered by Australian pioneer aviator John Duigan.
     “Setty, looking into the snag, took the opportunity to design a new aircraft and offered the design to Avro.
     "Setty worked on the aircraft with three other pioneer aviators and he test flew it on March 12, 1912.
     “His maiden flight was successful even with low power.”
     John Duigan was so impressed by the first trial flight; he complimented Setty and then concluded a deal with Avro.
     “This aircraft was later named Avro Duigan," says Jayaprakash.
     “Setty's design then became incorporated into the Avro 500 series built by A V Roe, including the Avro 504—arguably the best pilot trainer of all the early aircraft.
     “Later A V Roe himself gave Setty a special commendation—a medal recognizing his vital contribution to development of the Avro 500 series
     And the rest as they say—is “history uncovered”.
Geoffrey