 s
full year data for 2013 is released, it is becoming ever clearer that
global air freight markets swung upwards in the final quarter. Analysts
forecast more of the same in the months ahead, although as previously
explained in FlyingTypers, expect a skewing of the figures in
January and February due to the moveable feast (more like famine from
an air cargo perspective!) that is Chinese New Year.
After a strong last quarter, global international
freight increased 0.9 percent and total domestic freight movements rose
1.2 percent in 2013 compared to 2012, according to Airports Council International.
Final year figures from the International
Air Transport Association also showed an uptick in the market. Global
freight tonne kilometers increased by 1.4 percent last year, with IATA
noting an acceleration in demand in the second half of the year, with
“air freight volumes on a steadily increasing trajectory.”
Analysts at HSBC said most air cargo operators
in Asia now expect “modest improvements” in 2014, albeit from
a low base, with a shift of cargo back from sea to air likely if the global
economy accelerates.
The better air freight outlook is one of
a number of factors now improving the perception of airlines in financial
markets. IATA’s latest financial monitor said airline shares gained
6 percent in January compared to December, despite the broader market
falling by 4 percent. Lower fuel prices, strong passenger load factors
and the solid performance of US airlines were the major drivers, but IATA
noted that air freight markets were continuing to improve and load factors
remained at 2013 highs in January, buoyed by improving business confidence
and the pick-up in world trade.
But 2013 was a mixed year by region, as
detailed data from ACI and IATA makes clear.
IATA figures showed that Middle Eastern
and Latin American carriers saw the healthiest demand last year, up 12.8
percent and 2.4 percent respectively. However, Asia Pacific carriers—with
some 40 percent of the global market but under heavy pressure from Middle
East carriers on key East-West routes—posted a 1 percent year-on-year
loss.
The ACI figures painted a slightly different
picture. The airport sector representative said African air freight declined
2.7 percent in 2013 compared to 2012, led by a 5.4 percent year-on-year
drop at the continent’s leading hub of Johannesburg. But ACI reported
that air freight volumes in the Asia-Pacific region rose 0.9 percent and
European air freight markets expanded by 3.4 percent, driven by healthy
gains at Frankfurt and Amsterdam.
Meanwhile Latin America-Caribbean airports
had a flat 2013, but the Middle East’s leading hubs saw five percent
growth overall, although the picture was varied. “While other major
airports faced declines in freight traffic, Dubai posted a gain of 7.4
percent on the year,” said ACI. “Abu Dhabi, the third ranked
airport in terms of freight volume, reported double digit gains of 24.4
percent in freight traffic.”
ACI also said higher growth in North America
during the last quarter pointed towards a recovery this year led by Memphis,
the home of FedEx, and Louisville, UPS’s hub, which saw volumes
expand by 3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, in 2013. “Air
freight volumes [in North America] grew by 2.9 percent in December,”
said ACI. “This is above the 2013 annualized growth, which was almost
flat at 0.5 percent over 2012.
“The higher growth in North America
for the last quarter points towards a recovery.”
SkyKing
|
100%
Green