|  RE:
Way
To Go Dick Tracy
Dear Geoffrey,
While being aware of Yogi Berra’s maxim
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,”
I feel it only fair to write in defense of IATA’s forecasting record
for air cargo.
In your recent article Way to Go, Dick Tracy
you suggested that IATA’s view a year ago was that the outlook for
cargo in 2014 was “flat”. In fact this was not the case. Our
December 2013 forecast for 2014 was for FTK growth of 2.1%, a healthy
acceleration on a disappointing 2013. To be sure, we underestimated the
strength of air cargo, which in fact expanded by 4.3%, but nevertheless
we were correct in the broad thrust of our forecast.
Our December 2014 outlook suggests that FTKs
could grow 4.5% this year, and nothing would please us more than if this
also turns out to be an underestimation. It remains the case, however,
that air cargo revenues are $5 billion lower than in 2011 and that yields
are set to fall for the 4th year running. So there is still a “way
to go” before the industry can truly be said to be back where it
belongs.
I wish you and the FlyingTypers team a happy
and prosperous 2015,
Chris Goater
Manager, Corporate Communications
International Air Transport Association
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