|  RE:
JFK
Cargo Should Stay At Idlewild
Hi Geoffrey,
When I went to bed last night, I hadn’t
heard of Cuomo’s Stewart Freight move and now, I believe I can extrapolate
how it’s going to work.
And while you must remain forever vigilant,
I don’t believe there will be widespread disruption to your industry
because I believe his plan will only bifurcate freight with Passenger
Airlines using JFK and Freight Airlines using Stewart.
Based on your numbers, freight through JFK is scheduled to grow by 78%
from today, from 1.4 to 2.5 million tons in 2025. That’s an enormous
increase of 1,100,000 tons and forces the question, where are you going
to process all that additional freight – Idlewild? Maybe.
At that time you believe that 800,000 tons
will be arriving in the belly of Passenger Airlines, with an additional
825,000 tons arriving on Freighters owned by Passenger Airlines. That’s
1.625 million tons of the 2.5 million tons and an increase in growth at
Idlewild of 16%, which is easily (I assume) supportable. So I’m
betting the state’s plan is to leave that there, though I don’t
think they said so. This also means that
100% of the 1,250,000 tons of the immediate region freight will (or can)
arrive in JFK and the 300,000 tons needing connecting flights (total of
1,550,000 tons) will only go through planes owned by Passenger Airlines
(be they passenger bellies or freighter’s) at JFK.
At this point, Cuomo and the State will
have sent (international?) Freight Airlines and their 275,000 tons to
Stewart Airport, growing its current freight capacity from 20,000 tons
an enormous increase of 1,275%.
Now we’ve accounted for 1.9 million
tons of the 2.5 million tons, leaving us with 600,000 tons, 530,000 tons
you’ve identified as domestic freight.
That 600,000 tons of freight is destined
for places other than our immediate area and does not need connecting
flights, based on the 50/50 split you stated “only about 50 percent
of JFK’s cargo is destined for the immediate region.” so it
can go through Stewart. That raises Stewarts freight from 20,000 tons
to 875,000 tons and its projected growth will be a mind boggling 4,275%.
So if your numbers are correct and if my
numbers are correct, there won’t be a shutdown of Idlewild, just
the enormous growth of Stewart.
And if that’s correct, than shame
on Governor Cuomo for creating fear within your industry, by not laying
out the supporting facts with the soaring rhetoric.
Best,
Mark A. Markarian
Pleasantville, NY
Dear Mark,
Without getting into
a discussion of your interpretation of the numbers, I think the important
thing to understand is that the numbers represent process as much as product.
You have indicated as the thrust of your assumptions - “only about
50 percent of JFK’s cargo is destined for the immediate region so
it can go through Stewart”. In reality much of that cargo will be
rerouted by air throughout North America, and the remainder will travel
by trucks to points as far as Miami and Vancouver.
This redistribution (and the reverse consolidation
process) requires an incredibly complex and integrated ground and air
distribution system that because of in-built economies of scale, make
it virtually impossible to relocate, particularly to an airport where
a comprehensive network with wide-ranging and redundant connections does
not already exist.
The important thing to remember is that
the airlines, the forwarders, the customs brokers, the truckers, and the
government agencies work together to keep JFK as efficient as it is, with
the ultimate goal of serving the shippers and consignees. Product pick-up
and delivery to wholesalers and retailers on a timely basis is why there
is air cargo. To put it in a way with which most people can identify -
an efficient and comprehensive JFK operation is why we have fresh lox
on our morning bagel!
Sincerely,
Geoffrey
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