Future 
        Investment  
        Landscape Changes
           The economic and financial 
        crisis seems to have altered the global investment landscape considerably. 
             It is now the developing countries that 
        are taking the lead in attracting investments as well as investingglobally, 
        according to the Unctad World Investment Report 2009. 
             Unctad predicts global inflows to fall from 
        $1.7 trillion in 2008 to below $1.2 trillion in 2009. Recovery is expected 
        to be slow in 2010 (to a level up to $1.4 trillion) and gain momentum 
        in 2011 (approaching $1.8 trillion). 
             According to Unctad secretary-general Supachai 
        Panitchpakdi, “The BRIC 
        countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are the most favored destination 
        for FDI. Not all trans-national corporations (TNCs) have been affected 
        by the financial crisis, particularly those involved in food and agriculture. 
        Others that have not been affected are those that put their targets on 
        long-term prospects such as the pharma industry.” 
             The report stresses agricultural production 
        and development as a means to development and food security for these 
        countries, and as Mr. Supachai said, “We believe that it is up to 
        national governments to do their bit to revive their agricultural process 
        as the World Investment Report 2009 tries to propose.” 
             The report shows that there was a huge surge 
        in investments in developing and transition economies, increasing their 
        share in global FDI flows to 43% in 2008. This was partly due a concurrent 
        large decline in FDI flows to developed countries (29%). 
             FDI inflows to South Asia in 2008 amounted 
        to $51 billion. In 2007, the growth rate in South Asia was 49%. Inflows 
        to the two largest emerging economies, China and India, continued to increase 
        in 2008. China and India have been steadily gaining importance as host 
        economies. 
             According to Unctad’s World Investment 
        Prospects Survey 2009-11, both India and China ranked third and first, 
        respectively, as the most-preferred FDI locations. Their strong performance, 
        even during the current crisis, has reshaped the landscape of FDI flows 
        to the region as well as to the world at large. China became the third-largest 
        FDI recipient country, after the U.S. and France, with India catching 
        up in 10th position. 
             In recent years, leading TNCs in many manufacturing 
        and services industries, ranging from steel and automotives to retail, 
        have sped up their market entry and expansion in India. FDI flows to India 
        in 2008 surged to a record $42 billion. 
        Outward investment in regional outflows from China and India rose from 
        23% in 2007 to 37% in 2008. India ranked third among all developing and 
        transition economies and 13th in the world as a source of FDI. In addition 
        to oil companies, large mining and metal companies from China and India 
        have become more and more aggressive in acquiring overseas assets. 
             Unctad states that for many Chinese and 
        Indian companies, in particular, the desire to acquire undervalued assets 
        (such as mineral deposits, technologies, brand names and distribution 
        networks) during the global and financial crisis may boost Asian investments 
        in developed countries. 
             There has been an overall trend by Asian 
        countries to change national policies and legislation to become more favorable 
        to FDI, leading to the further opening up of markets. Thus, in 2008 and 
        early 2009, India has either raised or abolished existing FDI ceilings 
        for certain industries. 
         Gordon Feller  |