Glyn And Ram On Air Cargo Tomorrow

     In a world where TikTok affects more than one billion people every day and the web has become as indispensable as the air we breathe, entertaining a conversation on air cargo’s role in global trade may sound slightly retrospective, but underlining its unique importance, giving examples of the strong spirit of change which animates this area of the industry has been totally engaging for the consumed professionals, as well as for students. Our readers will have the opportunity to read this rara avis today, in our report of the conversation between two of the most prominent leaders globally.
     Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University entertains a series of content-focused, web-based conversations, which are recognized under the headline ‘Vantage Point Speaker Series’. This is how ERAU introduced their talk on ‘Air Cargo's Strategic Role in Global Trade’, which is their 2025 Focus: “This year, the Vantage Point Speaker Series is exploring the intersection of people, technology and business innovation. In an era of rapid transformation driven by technology and high traffic demand, how are leaders shaping the future of business in the aviation ecosystem?”
     For those who are not familiar with ERAU, the institution introduces its own unique setup as follows: “In 1925, barnstormer John Paul Riddle met entrepreneur T. Higbee Embry, and together, they formed the Embry‑Riddle Company to teach the adventurous to fly. This partnership was the beginning of a vision that has produced more than 155,000 alumni who drive innovation and keep the aerospace and related industries running safely and productively.”
     So at the ERAU talk on ‘Air Cargo's Strategic Role in Global Trade’ the FlyingTypers were listening and typing like crazy (and hopefully understanding the tone), trying to give our readers an account of the dialogue between two of the most prominent leaders in the field, Glyn Hughes and Ram Menen. Neither of the speakers needs an introduction for air cargo aficionados, but let us assume we shall also attract attention in different corners with this article (students, maybe?), so let us borrow the introduction that ERAU produced for their “Vantage Point Speaker Series, presented in partnership with The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA). This conversation will feature Glyn Hughes, director general of TIACA, and Ram C. Menen, a distinguished aviation industry leader.”

     “Glyn Hughes, Director General, The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) has been involved in air cargo for over 40 years, beginning his career with British Caledonian in the United Kingdom. He joined the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in 1991 and was appointed global head of cargo in 2014. In 2021, he became the first director general of The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), where he now leads the organization’s vision for a safe, profitable and united air cargo industry.  Ram C. Menen, Founding Member and Trustee, The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), has spent decades at the forefront of the aviation industry, leading efforts in airline operations, cargo logistics and global business strategy. He retired as the Divisional Senior Vice President, Cargo of Emirates and was a part of the founding management team of the airline. He played a key role in developing innovative cargo-handling solutions and shaping the future of air freight logistics. Menen was a founding member of the International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) and served as its President, CEO and Chairman of the Board from 1994-1996. He chaired the Cargo Committee of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) from 2008-2012. He is also a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transportation (FCILT) and a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society (FRAeS). He continues to serve as an advisor in the aviation and logistics sectors, driving innovation in unmanned cargo aircraft and air freight operations.”
     Robert Walton (left) of ERAU kicked the ball and opened the floor to a set of questions for the speakers, who started knitting the fabric of the webinar. This article is about air cargo at the academic level, hence it will hardly feature on a collection of puns and jokes, but knowledge may come at a price, so let’s get in and learn something!
     Glyn offered an introduction of TIACA, remarking that it is a unique organization, representing the full horizon of the industry, not just a sector. This is indeed a pretty unique character for TIACA, as the only truly ecumenical organization that can speak for air cargo as a whole. Shippers, forwarders, airports, airlines, cargo handlers, tech-suppliers, etc. all have a voice in TIACA and this is indeed special.  
     Ram chimed in with his memories of his TIACA days and managed, in so doing, to portray the economy of the supply chain over three decades: international trade migrating to China through outsourcing. That was the start of a big change, from 80’s to 90’s up until today, and it is still changing . . .  
     It was observed that Air Cargo is a comparatively more expensive means of transportation, but in the Supply Chain it shows advantages, normally winning where time is critical. Glyn observed that the arrival of China in the WTO gave the process a boost and more than a billion people have been lifted out of poverty in the process. We could add, but this observation was not made by the speakers, that this was a colossal social revolution that increased the global wealth enormously. What was noted indeed was that air cargo’s role in the process was crucial.  In order to put things in perspective some figures were given: about 35% of trade by value is moved by air cargo, over 8 trillion dollars of goods moved. Volume wise, it is just over 1%, but the most crucial and expensive products fly by air. These figures remained more or less stable in the last three decades, with a moderate increase in favour of air cargo. Ram Menen also claimed that TIACA was first to involve the academia at that time, with universities in the U.K., Canada and Rotterdam the first to participate in the emerging conversation. 

Trade Disturbances
     The elephant in the room was then exposed through the next question: “how are the current trade disturbances re-shaping the air cargo industry?” If you decide to put your stakes on the best contender to take a question of this caliber you cannot choose a better pair of contenders. Glyn started observing that “China is the powerhouse factory of the world, but we are now on a “China plus one” scheme to mitigate risks, the one being a manufacturing area not so far from China. Right now we are witnessing a reshape of trade through tariffs. There is also now a “USA plus one” consumer market choice in international trade and the reasons are the same, if reversed. “So from an air cargo perspective we live in complexity and we are fast to adapt,” was Glyn’s closing point.

     Glyn recalled the famous saying (perhaps attributable to Ram), that declares: “You build 3 km of a highway, you move cargo 3 km, you build 3 km of a railtrack, you move cargo 3 km, you build 3 km of runaway you can move cargo anywhere . . . , so as supply chains shift and evolve, the air cargo industry is the prime mode of transport to actually support that. and certainly when manufacturers are looking for new production centers to connect with new consumer centers, air cargo could actually be facing the next 3-5 years of phenomal growth.”
     Ram concurred and added that “trade is like water: it finds its own levels; During this tariff period, looking at week 36 numbers this year the China-U.S. market has gone down, but the China-Europe sector has gone up . . . Menen continued by explaining belly-hold and freighters, and their differences. Belly-hold is almost inflexible to move from one area to another as passenger demands dictates its positioning, whereas freighters are more efficient to swiftly relocate, going to different regions now. “We are actually going through an evolutionary period, is it going to be permanent, I don't think so, however overall it is going to have a positive effect, with for example new markets coming in and this trend is going to stay” was his conclusion.
     At the same time there was another point made by Glyn: “Air cargo is unidirectional, while passengers are bi-directional.” Glyn agreed that the current changes in USA market demand drop are a “temporary blip”, but “the executive orders have had significant consequence on parcels sent via post: the carrier has no relationship with the sender or ultimate receiver and therefore cannot collect any tariffs due and have had to embargo their carriage. 90 post offices have subsequently embargoed the U.S. from their delivery routes. We anticipate we will probably see some softening of some of the policies that have been put in place.”
     From a certain point of view, the statements were made factually, devoid of any comments, but our readers understand the profound implications that such changes may have (or not) on the economy of the USA and international trade, depending on how certain rules will stay or go . . .
     At this point an important observation was made: “In the past Air Cargo’s was 2.5 times the growth of GDP; after 2008 this changed and now the relationship is more fluid. The balance has not been found yet.  Trade wars may cause the ratio to change again: air cargo is no longer a signal of where the economy is going.” That was the conclusion.
     The question coming next was pretty obvious: “How is the air cargo industry adapting to the change?”  Glyn replied that “eCommerce is about 25% of the lot and it has potential, especially because it is driven by younger consumers. eCommerce is the perfect example of ‘anything to anywhere’ and it will continue, despite de minimis policy changes. The de minimis rules don’t have a direct impact on demand, which is adapting.” Ram underlined the ability to make payments from anywhere to anywhere as the element that pulled down all the barriers.

De Minimis And The Integrators
     There was a question on the screen, showing the audience’s complete involvement: “Could the end of the de minimis exception in the U.S. have an impact on the integrators’ business, in particular versus other freight carriers that focus on larger/higher value consignments?”
     Then an inevitable question came: “Could the end of de minimis impact on integrators?” Menen was adamant: “Definitely yes, we used to move small packages, but now they start to reconsolidate cargo and then move it internally for distribution. Cargo moves like water and the channels define the opportunities.”

Sustainability And Air Cargo
     The conversation moved on to sustainability: “What practical steps have been taken to reduce the impact of air cargo?” Glyn maintained that everything that could be done had been done, e.g. moving to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), using carbon capture and storage with a view to returning CO2 as fuel. “Two trillion dollars are required in investments in order to achieve the needs of airlines in sustainable fuels by the 2050 target date for net zero. All other aspects, designs, paints etc. have been improved. But, but . , . only 0.6% of all emissions are accountable for air cargo and this is also a consideration to be made. If you think of flowers for instance, their movement by air cargo has helped millions of families out of poverty in developing countries . . . So we need to be always aware of the social impact of the measures we take.”
     Ram said that SAF is not the only way forward, but other solution present challenges. Methanol is used to charge fuel cell on road transport and this could be explored also to charge batteries, reducing the size of the batteries and continue changing them while travelling. The moderator observed that all agree that SAF is not the one and only answer to environmental challenges.

Conversions Or Alternative Aircraft Options
     Another screen shot was moving the conversation forward: “With the upward trend on air cargo, what does this mean on the aircraft OEM side, would it mean more demand for aircraft that can be converted to cargo? Do we still see 747 and A380 sustain its demand because of this opportunity?”
     With this, in my view a capital question came to the table, perhaps in disguise: “Does air cargo increase mean larger numbers of aircraft flying?” The speakers agreed that the famous expression “freighter later” could be used to describe what happens right now, but this may change because of environmental issues: for example, 747’s would be phased out. OEM’s are working with passengers’ aircraft. Jet Zero and others will come up with specific answers for air cargo. BETA certified a small electric airplane. Passenger aircraft lifespan lasts about 12-15 years, but re-delivering the aircraft for air cargo can save a lot of emissions associated with new productions. At this point Glyn gave many examples of new manned and unmanned aircraft coming to market that will reshape its landscape, such as Dronamics, Regent Craft, Nautilus, to name just a few.
     Ram observed that conversions sometimes need important adaptation and even the payload may change. So there will be pressure in the future to see what load the converted aircraft can take. You may have the volume, but not the payload . . .

Evolution Of The New Workforce
     At this point the screen showed the following question: “With the evolution of air cargo should come the evolution of leaders and workers who can manage operations and people as a global system. What human resource strategies are aviation companies creating to ensure they have a robust workforce capable of managing the evolving air cargo industry?”
     In other words, a bulky question was handed to the speakers: “What key skills are lacking in the new entrants?” The answer was in a way predictable:      “Speaking about this with many leaders, mostly the want is in the area of digital technology. Cargo is not like passengers: it is about the emotions that are contained in the boxes. It can be lifesaving drugs or the last version of the coveted device of your dreams . . . air cargo enables all that. This is not a 9 to 5 industry . . .”
     Ram said that “one of the skills that these guys can bring in is a blend of industrial engineering and IT; air cargo has been slow in digitizing and it will accelerate, but this is not what the industry wants. We need people who can think differently and create new, simpler processes.”
     Thoughts at random that were voiced by all speakers:
     • Air cargo needs to reflect the world it serves, considering all consumer generations and it is not just the boomers!
     • The question that needs to be asked is: ‘do you want to create a better world and deliver on these dreams?
     • This industry saves thousands of lives every year . . . without air cargo, no vaccines, no smart phone, no high tech and even everyday living would be affected.
     • This industry creates wonderful opportunities . . .
     • Air Cargo is meeting a sizeable number of the SDG of the UN: however, we do need to attract more young women in all areas, including pilots (India leads the world with 12%).
     • Commerce comes to a grinding halt if there is no logistics!

What Is The Future?
     There is never a tougher ‘question’ than asking yourself what is going to happen in the FUTURE? Well there we are and we get asked what is down the road in twenty years. All of a sudden I was thinking of my own life twenty odd years earlier and how different everything was . . . A new life in Brussels, the “enlargement”, big ideals . . . And in air cargo: security, security, security, an endless stream of measures and legislation . . .
     Glyn answered with serendipity: “Twenty years ago we moved desktop computers, and much material that is now all gone: CD’s, DVD’s, handsets, domestic printers etc.  today the two largest shippers are TEMU and SHEIN: they only started recently. This rapid change tells us that nobody knows what the next 10 years will look like.”
     Ram was more willing to stand up to the challenge: “3D printing is going to change a lot of things,” he said.  “We shall see the same as it happened in newspapers’ environment and this will change the dynamic . . . Space industry will grow and will accelerate. We have gone from the Abacus to AI . . .
     Personally I tend to side with the idea that nobody knows what things will be like in future: I have seen so many changes, most of them completely unexpected. For somebody who started working at a time when we had no photocopier in the office and we had to send attachments by re-typing the quoted letter with “quote” and “unquote” I can tell you that transport and logistics has changed a lot since. Well, it took much more than twenty years in fact, but it all happened in about half a century and I was lucky enough to live through it all.  
     Today’s conversation was entertained with the evident objective to improve the knowledge of those who could be now more or less twenty years old, in ERAU’s ranks or even outside of the University, thanks to the generous approach the institute takes with regard to studies and knowledge. These students will tell us whether the twenty odd years of changes that we have described today will reflect in the future of air cargo in 2045 or thereabouts.
     Have you ever tried to type “Long Live Air Cargo” on your keyboard and ask AI for comments? Here is the screenshot: "Long live air cargo is a sentiment celebrating the enduring importance of air freight in global trade, as evidenced by its continued growth, especially with the rise of e-commerce. Key factors contributing to this resilience include the speed of delivery, which remains unmatched for many goods, particularly perishables, pharmaceuticals, and high-value items. The industry also adapts to modern demands through technological innovation, a focus on sustainability, and specialized services for diverse cargo, such as live animals and temperature-sensitive products.”  
     I do not think I could have done better that this to recap today’s conversation and, believe me, twenty years ago this was just in my dreams. Long Live Air Cargo!   
Marco Sorgetti

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