So what do you know or suppose might happen ahead after flying around from industry event to industry event for some months now, wondering what’s up and what should we suppose or plan for in air cargo as 2025 moves into 2026 and beyond?
     Here are some thoughts from sources FT talks to that can be imagined as within the realm of possible things to come in air cargo.
     “What is going on now is a complete transformation in the industry," is the thought consensus here.
     “There’s going to be consolidation in the smaller U.S. all cargo carriers as trade flows are changing.
     “During the next 10 years China looks like it will be the chief global power followed by India with USA in third place,” was one reaction.
     "Things could change, but with present USA policies—that’s the future as it appears today.
     “Change will have a dramatic impact on the cargo carriers moving forward“ was another thought.
     “The e-commerce trend is also changing things dramatically.
      “Another factor is technology.
      “With cost of labor skyrocketing, smaller carriers just can’t weather that storm.
     “Right now several carriers depend on the military, and that business is going to shrink significantly as USA no longer needs overseas lift that they once utilized regularly," another source added.
     "Large carriers looking ahead in air cargo will hold on, but you’ll see them employing more and more technology, which will reduce their employees numbers, including flight crews as advancements will possibly even allow all cargo aircraft to operate utilizing a single pilot," was another declaration.
     "Of course the unions will scream and yell bloody murder, but in the end, these changes will be the natural outcome considering what is happening today.
     “Looking at tomorrow,” we were told, "with current experiments utilizing robotic aircraft, fasten your seatbelts, as there are many more changes, once only thought of as science fiction, on the horizon for air cargo?”
Geoffrey Arend

FT:   As Chief AI Officer at Kale Logistics, your work aligns with automation and optimization. Will your focus remain operational, or do you envision expanding Kale’s technology horizons even further?
RS:  My role at Kale encompasses both product and AI at scale. As a result, I bring a product mindset to AI development. While automation is a key focus, my vision extends beyond operational efficiency. The key is to create an intelligent logistics ecosystem. Our objective is to develop a series of applications that not only automate processes, but also go beyond that by learning from data, adapting to data, and then performing a range of automated activities using a variety of methods.  This includes predictive analytics, generative AI for decision support, and deeper integration between logistics, finance, and customer experience layers. Our ambition is to create a marketplace of smart AI agents in the logistics space that will be accessible to all our customers from within our ecosystem.

      This last statement seemed to me particularly important. I take the liberty to depart from the interview with Rajan, in particular to place a question that can be taken in fact by any interested interlocutor. Let’s open a small debate here . . . In an environment that is strongly interconnected as supply chain and logistics is, it seems to stand at odds with the assumption that at the end of the day service providers hope or are looking forward to creating an eco-system that can be called “their own”. In a system that can work only as and when every single part works in a kind of symbiosis with the others, it would seem to be advantageous to build a system as open and interconnected as possible, with little or no restrictions among the stakeholders of the chain. But this has not been the case for decades and apparently the riddle is still unsolved. One could say: anyone for tennis?
     After this gaping and probably unorthodox question, let us go back to our interview and get a bit more personal in the choice of listed items, as well as bit more “political” . . .

FT:   What do you see as the major shifts in logistics? Are more parcels, more regionalization, or something entirely new on the horizon?
RS:  We will see a dual movement: micro-logistics, which involves more parcels and faster fulfillment, with the last mile being of significant importance, as more warehouses are located closer to their customers. The other aspect is macro-optimization, which involves restructuring trade lanes, reshoring, and enhancing resilience. Logistics will increasingly act as a leveling mechanism. AI and automation will help to balance cost, sustainability, and speed across this evolving landscape. With the significant changes we are seeing in how countries view trade and with significant regulatory changes, there will be substantial shifts in the opportunity landscape for software vendors. They will need to create more flexible software frameworks and automate many of their processes more rapidly in response to any regulatory changes, including tariffs.

FT:   You had mentioned “unlocking business value through innovative platforms” in your introduction. Do you think progress in that area has often been slower than expected, and how can organizations do better?
RS:  This is a fascinating question. Many organizations adopt the approach of continuing their business as usual to ensure that their revenues are not impacted, while simultaneously initiating their transformation journey using AI as an enabler to accelerate the process. Most of them recognize that the effective use of platforms can unlock value, however, many view technology as an enabler, rather than a strategic core. This requires a mindset shift and the integration of data, AI, and APIs directly into the business model, not just its infrastructure. It’s about platform thinking and designing systems that continually evolve, make it easy to integrate partners, and scale innovation across the enterprise. Change also involves costs, especially when organizations undergo a major digital transformation. Hence, this necessitates a strategic shift in thinking and will also include budget adjustments.

FT:   Let’s have a look at the evolving patterns of trade. With increasing regionalization and reshoring trends, do you think logistics is becoming more local again? How does this influence your global work perspective?
RS:  This is a complicated question to answer! Yes, logistics is becoming more regionalized, driven by tariff shifts and supply chain resilience goals, as well as the trend towards manufacturing localization. This is an opportunity for SaaS providers like Kale. I believe that technology bridges these divides, because the software does not distinguish between regions, but rather utilizes and helps optimize logistics changes.  
     You would ask me then, how do you influence the process, right? My global experience enables me to view localization not as fragmentation, but as distributed intelligence. This facilitates smarter, faster, and more sustainable regional networks connected by AI-driven visibility platforms. As someone who travels internationally and across different markets, I bring a unique perspective to any partner or user of our software. In my role as Chief Product Officer, this perspective enables me to shape our product from the outset to be more globally oriented.

FT:   Yes, knowledge is power, but how do you view the recent debates over de minimis thresholds and their potential impact on e-commerce? Disruptive?
RS:  The thresholds have tightened in the U.S. landscape, ending duty-free perks for low-value imports. This might help improve the country’s revenue receipts, but it spikes costs and increases delays for e-commerce. The downsides are that there will be margin squeezes, an increase in Customs backlogs, and a shift from impulse overseas buys to more considered local or aggregated shipping. I believe the e-commerce economy will undergo significant reshaping. However, I see this as a catalyst for smarter ops. This will push the industry towards data-driven consolidation, predictive clearance using AI, and more intelligent AI agents for automated compliance, saving money for early adopters. This may help mitigate some of the regulatory friction and provide an opportunity for logistics software to help these companies adapt to these changes.

FT:   You are surely looking at the bright side as your first choice I take it and I must commend you for this positive approach. Let me ask you a final question: is there a personal or professional yet unaccomplished goal you’d like to realize in the coming years?
RS:  My personal and professional goals converge towards creating an AI-driven logistics platform that becomes as trusted and intuitive as financial analytics are. I firmly believe that we are living in a truly transformative world, where AI is poised to change our way of thinking and our approach to work. Data will be critical for this, and the logistics industry sits at the center of an ecosystem that has visibility into key components of the global infrastructure. The next generation of leaders will know how to use AI natively and I would like to continue mentoring the next generation of product and technology leaders who can bridge the gap between business vision and engineering execution, laying the foundation for an intelligent logistics platform.

     With this hopeful and, from my point of view, slightly overwhelming statement, we have come to the end of this challenging interview, venturing into the new developments that a key IT-service provider as Kale Logistics has in store for our future trades. I have to thanks Rajan for a disciplined, accomplished and well informed account of what is cooking in his sorcerer’s boiling bowl. Far from being the sorcerer’s apprentice, as we remember in Disney’s masterpiece, Rajan Subramanian gave us an account of how science and technology can deliver what appears to be magic, but is in reality the result of hard work and dedication to make trade and logistics a more manageable and productive environment.
Marco Sorgetti

     Every once in a while, the right people find themselves in the right place at the right time and all of us can just marvel as the story unfolds, and as an industry we are eye witnesses to continuing and elevating possibilities.
     Take the case of Leandro Moreira, who is ramping up a dramatic effort whilst serving as President of Transportation at Frontier Scientific Solutions, launching the world’s first dedicated life science air route offering thrice weekly schedules linking Shannon, Ireland, with Wilmington, North Carolina.
     What is happening as you read this is: this is the first fully dedicated, temperature-controlled network of its kind; a nonstop, air route operational exclusively for the life sciences sector.
     Leandro explains all the bells and whistles of this complex and integrated offering like he is taking a walk in the park.
     “We are dedicated to the transport and storage of critical, life-saving materials – including finished medicines, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and medical devices.
     “Frontier’s dedicated B767F wide-body aircraft are the result of our partnership with Air Transport Services Group (ATSG), providing reliable wide‑body aircraft capacity for our life‑sciences‑only network, including real‑time, in‑flight temperature mapping and a specialized customer service team.
     “Our schedule of non-stop service provides guaranteed capacity with no co-mingling of general freight, ensuring product integrity through in-flight temperature mapping and continuous quality oversight.
     “Life Sciences air-and-ground network is engineered to minimize handoffs, shorten door-to-door delivery times, and maintain full GDP compliance – representing the first fully dedicated air transportation corridor purpose-built to mitigate risk and prevent temperature-related product losses.
      “By flying direct between SNN and ILM and integrating cGMP‑validated facilities with direct runway access, Life Sciences in addition to transparency reduces total handoffs and accelerates end‑to‑end movement compared with multi‑stop routings.”
     Frontier’s model is not only safer, but offers considerably less risk.
     “Since we utilize facilities built to minimize time on the tarmac and preserve the temperature integrity of life sciences products, these time critical consignments reach their destination faster, safer, and more securely – ultimately saving more lives.”
     Leandro Moreira is an easy going, totally professional transportation executive and as President of Transportation at Frontier Scientific Solutions, brings a distinguished international career in transportation and logistics that began in 1995.
     At American Airlines, Leandro spent more than 18 years in key management roles that among other things helped transform Miami International Airport into a series of giant reefers masquerading as air cargo buildings. Leo helped develop the first pharma hub in the Americas, setting new standards for life sciences transportation infrastructure.
     In 2014, he moved from the air at American, spending a half decade on the ground developing life sciences transportation as Managing Director Global Operations & Life Sciences for Brinks.
     At Brinks, which is known in the public mind for moving money in armored trucks, he launched and oversaw a successful new pharma division before joining Frontier Scientific Solutions, a dedicated global logistics integrator built exclusively for life sciences.
     “Our approach,” Leandro smiled, “in addition to being unique between USA and EU in moving vital Pharma, lowers the risk of temperature excursions and product damage while improving predictability for clinical and commercial shipments.  Everything we implement including FTZ status streamlines movement including customs processing.
     Life Sciences “temperature-controlled route between The United States and Europe,” Leandro declares, “strengthens the global life sciences supply chain by reducing touch points, minimizing risk, and ensuring products integrity – ultimately supporting our mission to protect patient safety and save lives.
     “We are building this key transportation route to serve billions of dollars of investment by major pharmaceutical companies in North Carolina and Ireland, as these two locations have solidified their positions as premier hubs with close access to major pharmaceutical markets.”
     In closing as the Air Cargo Americas Conference convenes, we recall Leo at the 2012 Air Cargo Forum in Atlanta. And guess what, Leo was talking temperature control at AA Cargo thirteen years ago.
     How about a couple of minutes with Leo in a blast from the past.
GDA/SSA