Most indicators suggest the market hit new highs in recent months and ‘peak air’ could last through to Chinese New Year in February. But some forwarders report a slight easing of demand in early December.

C’est Magnifique

      Why the French? Well, it is almost a New Year and nearing the time to pop some bubbly, celebrate, and live a little as we report: “The latest air freight data on rates and volumes points to a magnificent Q4—unless, that is, you were caught in the perfect demand storm without enough space to airlift product to market in time for the holidays.”
      “October 2017 was special” as volumes and revenues peaked, according to WorldACD. Global volumes, based on reports from 75 airlines collated by the analyst, were up 6.9 percent for the month, while revenues soared 20 percent compared to October 2016, itself by no means a poor month for airlines.

YoY Up Times 14

      “For the fourteenth month in succession, the industry showed a year-over-year (YoY) growth well above 5 percent, easily outpacing the growth in world trade,” said WorldACD. “And the records set in October are almost certain to be broken when November figures are in.”
      The October volume and revenue gains were not reflected quite so clearly in per kilo pricing, however, perhaps indicating just how much higher oil prices this year are bumping up the headline income numbers for airlines compared to a year earlier. For example, Drewry’s East-West Airfreight Price Index, a weighted average of all-in airfreight “buy rates” forwarders paid to airlines for standard deferred airport-to-airport airfreight services on 28 major East-West routes for cargoes above 1,000 kg, gained only 20 cents in October, although it still reached a year-high $2.89 per kg.

Driving High Tech

      The main market drivers in October included impressive yield growth from Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia, and high volume growth from Europe—from and to North America, and to Central and South America. “Looking at the Top-20 origin countries, we noticed a more than average YoY volume growth in parts of the USA (Atlantic South +19.1 percent, and Midwest +14.4 percent), Vietnam (+16.6 percent), Australia (+15.9 percent), Japan (+12.3 percent), the UK (+10.4 percent), Spain (+8.6 percent) and Germany (+7.6 percent),” reported WorldACD. “Lagging behind were such diverse origins as Taiwan (-8.8 percent), the Netherlands (+1.5 percent), China East (+2.9 percent), and India (+3.7 percent).”
      WorldACD said that by cargo product, pharmaceuticals had the largest YoY revenue growth (+31 percent) in October, thanks to a healthy volume increase of 19 percent, coupled with an increase of more than 10 percent in yields that were already more than 50 percent higher than average air cargo yields.
      “Developments in the two largest product categories were quite different,” added the analyst. “The transport of high tech & vulnerable goods thrived—both volume and yields increased by more than 11 percent—but fruits & vegetables were less in demand, at least when compared with October 2016. The edibles’ volumes decreased by 2.5 percent YoY, whilst their average yields hardly gained ground. Compared with the previous month, however, this sector did very well, with a revenue increase of 16.3 percent over September 2017.”

IATA Positive But Hedges Cautious

      IATA’s figures for October largely matched those of WorldACD, with demand measured in freight ton kilometers (FTKs) up 5.9 percent year-on-year. Although this represented a slowdown from the 9.2 percent annual growth recorded in September 2017, it still exceeded the average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent over the past decade. October also proved the 15th consecutive month that demand growth outstripped capacity growth; global capacity expanded just 3.7 percent year-on-year in October.
      Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO, added that tightening supply conditions in the fourth quarter should see the air cargo industry “deliver its strongest operational and financial performance since the post-global financial crisis rebound in 2010.”

The Beat Goes On

      Drewry also expects the rest of Q4 to remain buoyant. “Based on seasonal trends and anecdotal reports, Drewry expects airfreight rates to increase further in November,” added the analyst.
      IATA, however, was cautious about forward prospects. “While cargo demand remains strong, several indicators show that we may have passed the growth peak,” said a note. “The inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. is tracking sideways, indicating that the period when companies look to restock inventories quickly—which often gives air cargo a boost—has ended. The new export orders component of the global Purchasing Managers’ Index is stable. And the upward trend in seasonally-adjusted freight volumes has moderated. Freight volumes are still expected to grow in 2018, although at a slower pace than in 2017.”

Slowdown at The Hoedown Throwdown?

      There are also signs of a slight slowdown in loadings in Asia. “The cost of air freight has dropped for the last two weeks, and the overall situation has improved quite a bit, but for large volume of movement we are still having some difficulty [finding space],” Paul Tsui, managing director of Hong Kong-based forwarding and logistics operator Janel Group, told FlyingTypers in the second week of December.
      He predicted the market would remain “strong” until the end of December and then gradually return to normal before seeing a surge of volume before Chinese New Year in February.

Continues To Seek Peak

      Lucas Kuehner, Panalpina’s Head of Global Air Freight, said ‘peak air’ could last beyond the first week of December, the traditional point where things start to slow down. “It’s really difficult to forecast,” he added. “But I would not be surprised if, due to e-commerce stocking up in the second half of December and thereby creating a kind of vacuum for heavy freight, the peak went right into January and only slowed down after Chinese New Year. I think there’s a chance this might happen. At least, that's what we are prepared for.”
SkyKing