A stanza of ‘Fare Thee Well’, the famous poem by Lord Byron written upon relinquishing his wife and daughter, suits the times we are living in a way that seems to me almost supernatural. The famous verses go as follows:
               Though my many faults defaced me,
               Could no other arm be found,
               Than the one which once embraced me,
               To inflict a cureless wound?

     I think these verses sounds as a wakeup call for us, and it also shows that even English pronunciations change over time, as everything else. Speaking of changing times, this is a time that shows historical alliances tremble and uncertain new liaisons come to light, drawing a different picture in the mores of international trade. We listen with growing anxiety to the news of a world that has decided to unravel with a bewildering conduct and many of us feel abandoned or betrayed, others simply consider it normal that things change so much in a relatively short time and some simply did not take heed of the changes, finding themselves completely unsettled. Everyone seem to be thinking that President Trump has created this disconcerting landscape, but perhaps the pattern was not so established as most of us were thinking and Trump merely catalysed the reaction.  As a ship that comes out of the fog, blurred and squidgy . . . the colours of these changes are not clear and nobody knows whether this boat of change is friendly or hostile, her enormous figure covers the horizon and we wonder . . .
     Federico Fellini filmed, in a couple of minutes, the famous Rex ocean liner emerging form the fog in the Adriatic for the benefit of the local group of enthusiasts in one of his most celebrated films (Amarcord). Reading a couple of articles recently in the trades gives you this precise sense of the incumbent uncertainty: something is coming out of the fog and you know not what to do. No customary strategy works anymore, because the picture is so surrealistic that it is impossible to count on your habits or experimented knowledge.
     We asked some distinguished contacts for their thoughts on the current situation. Apparently our timing was right, and we do not want to waste more time with our own thoughts. Without further ado, here are their remarks, which are focussing mainly on the de minimis saga. This being said the tariff saga is yet to explode in my view, and perhaps it will eventually . . . in the hands of the recipient?

     We first quote Turgut Erkeskin, President of FIATA, in his local, Turkish capacity, as he submitted his views from Istanbul, this time not as the voice of FIATA, but as a buoyant appraisal from a Turkish perspective: “The elimination of the deminimis rule is a disruptive change for global air cargo, but it also realigns the industry toward value-driven models. For Türkiye, this presents an opportunity to move beyond transit reliance in air freight supply chains and emerge as a strategic logistics hub for nearshoring, e-commerce fulfilment, and multimodal trade flows.
     Rising U.S. - China trade frictions are accelerating the relocation of production to Türkiye and Eastern Europe. Türkiye’s competitive manufacturing base (textiles, automotive, white goods, electronics) positions it to capture new export air freight demand.
     Global and Chinese e-commerce players may increasingly pre-stock inventory in Turkish free zones and bonded warehouses to serve Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa within 24–72 hours by road or air. This presents a new growth model for forwarders.
     Türkiye’s position along the Middle Corridor (China–Central Asia–Türkiye–Europe) enables innovative rail-sea-air-road solutions, offering flexibility in a fragmented global trade environment. The role of main cities like Istanbul, Izmir, Mersin and Iskenderun as hybrid logistics hubs can be strengthened further if supported by targeted policy and infrastructure investments.
     As air cargo reverts to its premium role, Türkiye’s logistics ecosystem can capture higher yields in pharmaceuticals, perishables, defence, and high-tech sectors where Istanbul Airport already has certified handling facilities. Forwarders and airlines that adapt quickly, by focusing on high-value cargo, developing regional fulfilment capacity, and leveraging Türkiye’s geography, will emerge as the winners in the new trade era.”

     Nicolette van der Jagt, Director General of CLECAT, offered her comments: “from an EU/CLECAT perspective. Recent analysis of the U.S. decision to end the $800 de minimis exemption and impose new reciprocal tariffs illustrates the profound disruption now being felt across the air cargo sector. The immediate effect has been a sharp decline in transpacific air volumes, as low-value e-commerce shipments once flown individually are increasingly consolidated into sea freight. Industry estimates suggest that volumes on certain China–U.S. lanes have dropped by up to 60%, with e-commerce bookings falling by half in May alone. While this shift is most visible in the U.S. market, it is reshaping global network planning and could undermine connectivity for European exporters, as carriers redeploy freighter capacity to more predictable markets.
     The repercussions are also clearly visible in Europe, where postal operators face immediate operational difficulties. With all parcels now requiring formal customs entries from 29 August, DHL, PostNord, Posten Bring, Omniva and Bpost have already announced suspensions of parcel shipments to the U.S., citing the lack of clarity from U.S. Customs and the impossibility of adapting systems in such a short timeframe. These suspensions underline the scale of the transition challenge and the likely disruptions to consumers and businesses dependent on cross-border e-commerce flows.
     For those active in the parcel business, the change represents not only a market shift but also a major compliance and operational burden. With the suspension of the $800 de minimis threshold, all shipments into the U.S., including those from the EU, must for the time being be processed through the Automated Commercial Environment with full data, valuation, and duty payment. Unless exemptions are later confirmed once the EU–US tariff agreement enters fully into force, operators in this segment must assume that every parcel requires a formal entry. This significantly increases the filing workload and the need for robust data and origin controls. The risk of penalties for errors or transshipment circumvention is high, making proactive due diligence and clear client communication essential.
     What is emerging is not a temporary fluctuation but a structural shift in U.S. trade policy with direct consequences for global supply chains. Europe now faces the additional risk of becoming a preferred entry point for low-value e-commerce parcels diverted from the U.S. market, reinforcing calls to accelerate the EU’s own plans to abolish the €150 de minimis threshold before 2028. This debate has gained new urgency as policymakers confront the risk of Europe becoming a dumping ground for diverted low-value imports, putting pressure on local retailers and creating an uneven playing field for compliant traders.Against this backdrop, CLECAT welcomes the European Commission’s continued focus on e-commerce in the context of the Customs Reform. In June, the Council agreed its negotiating mandate on the reform, confirming support for the Commission’s proposal to abolish the current €150 de minimis threshold and replace it with a small e-commerce handling fee. This fee, set at around €2 per parcel, is intended to help customs authorities recover the costs of supervising the massive growth in low-value consignments while ensuring that all parcels are subject to proper risk controls. CLECAT recognises the rationale for such a measure, but stresses that it must be applied in a proportionate and transparent way, avoiding unnecessary burdens on legitimate operators and consumers.
     At the same time, it is important to underline that the wider EU–US trade agreement currently under negotiation will also have significant consequences for freight forwarders more generally. Even outside the e-commerce space, forwarders will face higher landed costs for key export sectors, stricter rules on origin verification, and an increased compliance workload as tariff schedules and customs processes evolve.”

      I also decided that this time it was appropriate to find out how our friends “down under” absorbed the changes, so I asked our Australian friend Paul Golland of PG Logistics, who also happens to be a FIATA Board Member, what his impressions were. This is what Paul sent me, exceeding my expectations: “In relation to the removal of de minimis shipments into the USA, Australia post has just announced the suspension of business parcel shipments with immediate effect. This will have a significant impact on ecommerce business into the USA from Australia.
     We do not see any loss of routes from the USA, as Australia is still seen as an attractive holiday destination for a lot of Americans and loads are steady. As almost 90% of our airfreight exports the world over leave on passenger flights we do not expect any loss of capacity either. Hopefully we may even see a reduction in rates as the tonnages drop.”

     Through our friend Paul we also received an official comment from Brad Leonard, Manager Border and Biosecurity, IFCBAA: “Australia Post today announced it will temporarily partially suspend postal sending to the United States (U.S.) and Puerto Rico, effective 26 August 2025, until further notice.
     The temporary suspension will impact Business Contract, MyPost Business and Retail customers sending goods through the postal network. Gifts under USD$100, letters and documents are unaffected by this change. This response is in-line with action taken by numerous other postal operators globally.
     The suspension comes as the result from Executive Order “Suspending Duty-Free De Minimis Treatment for All Countries”, requiring that duty on international mail shipments be paid by the international mail carrier or a qualified party acting in lieu of the carrier.
     This is yet another direct consequence of the Trump administration which has already included the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” on all goods imported into the U.S. at different levels depending on the country from which they were exported and the imposition of “sectoral tariffs” on certain other goods such as steel and aluminium with more sectoral tariffs on the way.
     From 29 August 2025 the U.S. will also remove the “de minimis” exemption from customs duty for most shipments valued below a USD$800 threshold (largely effecting the e – commerce sector). The announcement by Australia Post and the other international postal services that they are to cease “de minimis” services affecting most low-value consignments of commercial goods are a predictable consequence that such postal authorities do not want to be involved in this new and uncertain trade world.”

     So our friends from rather different areas in the world have focused on one essential aspect of the change, the disposal of the USD$800 de minimis rule. Decisions similar to those taken in Australia are ensuing in many other areas. Having worked with the WCO in years when the de minimis rule was discussed, before being introduced long ago, I personally thought the USD$800 limit was absurd then, and is too high even now, imagine what it was in that period. In those years the interests of many emerging operators, not least the big express carriers, were pushing to make eCommerce explode and it did! Retail e-commerce sales surged from approximately USD$27.6 billion in 2000 to over USD$1.2 trillion in the U.S. by 2024, with global retail e-commerce sales expected to exceed USD$6.86 trillion in 2025. Whether this will continue unaffected now is unclear. Anyone who remembers what international trade was before the year 2000 cannot make head or tail of the magnitude of its change. Was it for the greater good? Who knows, it is too late to choose heads or tails now, we are in these straits and for some of us the fog is getting thicker . . . Whether the ship of our trade habits will manage to steer clear of the most dangerous junctions is yet to be seen. For sure a similar complaint was heard by traders across the board: the unpredictability and the contradictions that were registered in the past few months have been considered even more dangerous than the adopted measures. So stop the absurd USD$800 de minimis for good and start adapting.
     Today is too early to make an assessment, we limit ourselves to collecting opinions. Later, probably in the autumn, we shall see what harvest we can get. September is a good month for harvesting apples, in hopes that they have not been poisoned by the hag, as the European folklore has staged in so many tales. 
Marco Sorgetti