| Thailand Growth Challenged  Just 
          as Thailand finishes celebrating its national holiday, The Songkran 
          Festival (Thai New Year) 13-15 April and hope earlier in the year that 
          some bright signs for the economy of Thailand were returning, hope has 
          been dimmed that a key driver, the tourism industry has been alerted 
          after the worst political violence in nearly two decades left 21 dead 
          and 874 injured in and around Bangkok last week. Now with many countries, including most 
          recently Hong Kong, warning against travel to Thailand, a dull reality 
          is setting in that without its house in order, Thailand may slip back 
          into a self-made abyss.
 But some still hope that things can be 
          brought to calm once again.
 At the beginning of last year, the prospects 
          were somewhat bleak for the Thai economy, already deep in recession 
          and even with ongoing civil upheaval in the country had been well on 
          its way to recovery.
 Though Thailand's economy contracted by 
          2.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, the shrinkage was far less than 
          the 7.1% in the first three months of 2009 or the 4.9% in the second 
          quarter.
 Bank of Thailand earlier this year said 
          2009 fall in GDP was around 3% for the year compared to 2008, while 
          2010 could witness economic growth of between 3.3% and 5.3%.
 There are a number of signs that the Thai 
          economy had been moving forward: consumer confidence was on the rise 
          and a key indicator of economic health - automotive sales – has 
          been steadily on the increase.
 At least some of the growth being seen 
          can be attributed to the $3.5bn stimulus package that was rolled out 
          by the government early last year aimed to increase spending through 
          a mix of cash payments to low-income earners, tax cuts, education loans, 
          and subsidies for transport and utilities.
 Even more significant to bolstering the 
          longer-term health of the economy was the $39bn spending program that 
          the government launched late last October.
 Set to run for three years, the scheme 
          foresees major investments in transportation, logistics, health care 
          and education projects, which will strengthen Thailand's economic infrastructure 
          for the future while creating direct jobs and boosting capital flows.
 Help for Thailand's economy also continues 
          to flow in from abroad, with increasing export orders after a sharp 
          drop in the first half of last year.
 Another boost from overseas had been realized 
          via Thailand's crucial tourism industry. Hit hard late in 2008 by waves 
          of protests that caused many prospective visitors to think twice about 
          holidaying in the country, as well as by the global recession eating 
          into the trade, the tourism sector was showing signs of solid recovery 
          as 2009 came to a close.
 By the end of last year, Thailand Tourism 
          Authority of Thailand (TAT) said 2009 delivered about 14.1m visitors 
          on the back of strong bookings during the final month of the year.
 While there are strong indicators that 
          the Thai economy is moving towards recovery, there are also a number 
          of factors that can slow or even stall this progress in 2010.
 As example last September, a Thai Court 
          issued an injunction ordering work on projects being built or those 
          already completed at the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate in Rayong Province, 
          south of Bangkok, be halted as
 they did not comply with existing environmental and health regulations.
 The ruling, in response to a petition 
          tabled by local residents and non-government organizations, directly 
          affects at least 65 separate projects, with a total value of around 
          $12bn.
 Various reports showed the damage to the 
          economy, including an analysis by the state's Fiscal Policy Office suggested 
          that shutting down Map Ta Phut could cut Thailand's GDP by between 0.5% 
          and 1% and cost as many as 100,000 jobs.
 Today the saga was no clearer to resolution, 
          with the committee set up by the government to draft new industrial 
          development guidelines still to table its findings.
 Last December 2 the Supreme Administrative 
          Court upheld the lower court's ruling on suspending work
 at Map Ta Phut.
 As you read this, amidst prospects that 
          the uproar could impact Thailand for the next ten years Map Ta Phut 
          investors are now also chiming into the grief felt by many at the spectacle.
 Also threatening to tarnish the achievements 
          of Thai economy are the headline making and tourist frightening protest 
          and civil violence as supporters of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra 
          have recently been taking to the streets the most in ongoing protest 
          against the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
 Gordon
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