As police patrol the airport express central train station in downtown Hong Kong, Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019, protesters were untrammeled in their continued actions against Mainland China’s pressure on the former Crown Colony. Authorities were limiting airport transport services and controlling access to terminals Saturday during a second straight weekend of disruption following overnight demonstrations that turned violent.

This is all new territory for the world. I don’t think in recent memory, we have ever seen such volatility in the marketplace. This is not the traditional economic cycle, so it is getting almost impossible to make any sane predictions! Most of the issues today have a very strong political connotation and, I would say, are self-inflicted in the world’s major economies causing far-reaching effects world over. The U.S.-China trade war, the Brexit uncertainty, and the current unrest in Hong Kong are all going to have a long-term effect on the world economy.
     Typically, the stock markets should have tanked by now, however, they have not!! It is becoming extremely difficult to understand the sentiments on which the world stock market is tracking the highs and lows. One thing for sure is that there is a lot of wealth creation in progress!
     Now that the U.S. tariff on a lot of the electronics and other consumer goods has been postponed till mid-December, we should see some higher demand for air capacity on the TransPac sector during November and December in last minute inventory top up before the imminent tariff implementation.
     The demand for capacity on the U.S. to China is likely to be very low as China looks for its imports from elsewhere. We are likely to see larger demand to China from Latin American countries, especially for perishable commodities.
     In the European arena, again the Brexit situation has become very unpredictable. As of today, it looks like they will be kicking the can further down the road, creating more uncertainty.
     Inventory management is likely to be a bit of a challenge. The original stocks are now being drawn down, and the replenishment process will result in some air cargo volumes, however, the level of demand for air capacity will depend on whether the UK will leave EU on October 31, 2019 or some time in 2020. Brexit is likely to boost demand for direct capacity inbound to UK from the Trans-Atlantic, Africa and Far-Eastern regions. The losers in this deal will be surface carriers (trucks and ferries), who rely on the internal EU/UK volumes. There is likely to be lack of outbound volumes ex UK which will create challenges for pure freighter operators, as UK exports are unlikely to find new markets in a hurry.
     The long-term effects of Hong Kong’s political situation, where violence has crept into what were peaceful protests, will be interesting to watch as this has really shaken the market confidence in its role as a very stable major world hub.
     Luckily, cargo movements were not directly affected, other than reduction in available belly capacity. Regular freighters and extra sections have kept the cargo flow moving.      However, given the unpredictability that the political situation is creating and, the fact that the mainland is creating its own cargo hubs, could mean lesser cargo being routed via the Hong Kong hub. The best Hong Kong can hope for is that memories will be short, and it can get back to normal operations soon, provided there is a resolution to the current turmoil.
     Post turmoil and in return to normalcy, there is likely to be higher demand in the short term for inbound cargo, especially for renovation of all the destruction caused by the rioters.
     Whatever the situation, 2020 will be a challenging year for the world air cargo industry.

     In the U.S., Bake Me A Wish, headquartered in New York City began in 2005, offering nationwide service for gourmet birthday cake delivery via UPS.
     During the past 14 plus years the company has grown to offer more and more of the finest bakery gifts available including gourmet cookies, brownies, cupcakes, pies and quiches.
     “There is no better way to celebrate a special occasion than to send a little indulgence from someone who cares,” said company founder Josh Kaye.
     “Air cargo plays an increasingly important role in our meeting our guarantee of on-time delivery, especially overseas and around the world” Josh declared.
     So with Cookies & Cream, Tres Leches, Double Chocolate Crunch, and other decadent delights taking off to destinations around the world we wonder what impact the company feels from this unique effort.
     The company said it utilizes USPS for its overseas delivery,a part of the business that has grown big time since the company launched Operation Birthday Cake in 2007 with Soldiers’ Angels, a support group for military families.
     Bake Me A Wish is all in with this program, dedicated to lifting the spirits of deployed U.S. military personnel by sending birthday cakes to where they’re stationed—anywhere in the world!
     Since inception, the company has delivered over 25,000 baked goods overseas, as well as to Veterans Hospitals domestically.
     “We received a letter that brought it all home and continues to impact our effort,” Josh said.
     “A soldier named Joel, a MSgt/USMC stationed in Camp Leatherneck, Afghanistan wrote the following:

     “Thank you so much for the cake on my birthday.
     “It was such a moral booster to some of the soldiers to get a dessert that tasted like chocolate.
     “I got the cookies and cream brownie cake that was delicious.
     “I am also using the package as a make shift cooler and the gel pack is awesome too.
     “I know this might seem weird to some folks back home, but here it is a definite pick me up.
     “Thanks to you and your staff again for thinking of us while we are over here. It sure has been a long year."

     Bake Me A Wish has also partnered with Armed Services YMCA to do even more to support and make this a brighter world for military families, who move frequently and are sometimes separated on special events and holidays.
For more click here.

     A Louisiana, USA Senator named Bill Cassidy, R-La., who issues a torrent of 'White Papers' on various subjects, including Health Care now wants the Federal Government to look into possible cargo-based money laundering (TBML-Trade-Based Money Laundering), suggesting TBML , “is one of the most profitable and safe mechanisms to launder money, and it is imperative that Congress act.
     “There are certain industries that present a greater risk for TBML, such as couriers, cargo services, freight shipping services, international shipping, and money service businesses. TBML generally appears in jurisdictions with a high risk of traditional money laundering and where authorities have recently improved their traditional anti-money laundering
efforts.
     “As a result, criminals are forced to turn to trade to launder money, rather than traditional money laundering schemes.”

Laundering White Paper

     “There needs to be real-time coordination and reviewable connections between the agency handling the manifest information and the agency handling corresponding financial information within the U.S. and between the U.S. and our trading partners,” the Senator contends in a ‘White Paper’ adding:
     “This could be accomplished through a public distributed ledger system. This system would allow all parties to simultaneously follow the transaction and track any changes made to the documents uploaded to the system.”
     Without detailing any specific instance aside from referencing Colombia in the 1980s and Mexico in the 1990s etc., the Senator’s White Paper asserts that “TBML is not covered in the USA cargo inspection process, so money laundering can go unchecked impacting tax revenues.”
     Senator Cassidy is calling for a legislative agenda that he contends will tighten up on TBML through interagency and private-sector cooperation; and enhanced collaboration with trading partners.

The Scary Bunch

     “Threat networks, terror groups and drug traffickers are often linked through social relationships and common facilitators, which means that despite different objectives, they share the same assets for shipping illicit goods, funneling money and bribing officials.
     “Those assets form part of a supply chain in which licit trade takes place.
     “This makes TBML one of the most profitable and safe mechanisms to launder money, and it is imperative that Congress act,” Senator Bill declared.
     Stay tuned . . .
Click here to download White Paper.