My last article on the Trump Effect was a discussion on the U.S. Pilot Shortage that is being labeled a National Crisis.
      I recently attended a meeting in Washington, D.C., hosted by the Chief of the U.S. Air Force with the major airlines, regional airlines, civil air patrol, the airline unions, A4A, an airline training university, industry experts, congressional staffers, and leaders of the other military services. 
      All agreed that this is a serious problem that must be solved.

Ideas On The Table

      The airline industry attendees came up with many useful suggestions on ways to mitigate the problem, including getting more young people interested in flying, ways to help pay for the very high cost of U.S. commercial airline pilot training, and suggestions on changes in the existing requirements. 
      They suggested forming industry committees to research the various suggested methods and come up with a plan to minimize this problem.

Why Crisis

      You may ask why this is being called a National Crisis.  In my view, it is because of the effect this shortage is having and will have on the U.S. commercial airline industry. It may put the U.S. airline industry again in the decline, which we saw just a few years ago and resulted in flight crew and other staff layoffs, bankruptcies, and consolidation.
      Almost every carrier reported that pilot costs were growing by a large percentage due to this situation.

Mechanics Pinched As Well

      A similar shortage of licensed aircraft mechanics was also noted at the gathering. As these two labor groups get contract pay increases, the flight attendants as well as the other unionized airline employees will also demand increases. 
      This will no doubt result in a large cost increase to the U.S. carriers. In addition, as the dollar increases its value because of the Trump Effect, it will result in the U.S. carriers having an even higher cost compared to their foreign competition.

Losses Loom

      U.S. open skies and airline pooling agreements could accelerate this negative effect. 
      The end results may be that the large U.S. international carriers may not be able to compete profitably with their foreign competition. 
      This could lead, once again, into a loss situation with airline layoffs and possible further consolidation of the U.S. airline industry.
      You may say this is very unlikely, but can our industry afford to take the chance? 
      Put simply, to grow the airlines need more competitive cost trained flight crews. 
      To achieve this, the U.S. industry needs to work together with the U.S. government to solve what is emerging as a national crisis for our vital airline industry.
Bill Boesch

To Read Part 1 of This Series, Click Here
To Read Part 2 of This Series, Click Here
To Read Part 3 of This Series, Click Here
To Read Part 4 of This Series, Click Here
To Read Part 5 of This Series, Click Here
To Read Trump Effect—India Walks Softly Carries Big Stick, Click Here
To Read Trump Effect—Implications Of A Trump Trade War, Click Here
To Read Trump Effect—Trump Across The Pacific, Click Here