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   Vol. 16 No. 90
Monday November 13, 2017

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What A Difference A Day Makes

Back in 1958, Dinah Washington recorded “What a Diff’Rence a Day Makes.” The wonderful “Queen of the Blues” entreated:
      “What a difference a day made
      Twenty-four little hours
      Brought the sun and the flowers
      Where there used to be rain…”

Cargo Is A Song In 2017

      Had “Sweet Dinah” recorded that lovely tome more recently and replaced ‘day’ with ‘year,’ she could have been singing about air cargo markets in late 2017.
      The sun is, indeed, now shining, and burning away years of “Stormy Weather.”

By The Numbers

      WorldACD may have been doffing its cap to the talented Ms. Washington in its latest analysis, published at the start of November.
      It noted:
      “Exactly one year ago, our monthly message discussing the September 2016 performance, opened with the following words: ‘We had not seen it for two years, a volume growth of more than 5 percent year-over-year (YoY), and yet, that was September's gift to the beleaguered air cargo world.’
      “What a difference a year makes...
      “The industry has moved from dejection about continuing meager results to an upbeat feel about the business.”
      And with good reason. September 2017 was the thirteenth consecutive month of YoY volume growth of well above 5 percent. And, although growth of 8.8 percent represented a YOY stumble on the 10+ percent gains enjoyed for much of this year, it was a marginal stumble and easily explained away.
      As FlyingTypers has previously noted, the upturn in demand from September 2016 onwards will necessarily make year-on-year comparisons less flattering from now on than they have thus far during 2017.
      So in the context of the wave air cargo caught just over a year ago, 8.8 percent YoY growth this September was no mean feat.
      Moreover, as WorldACD noted, September 2017 contained less of the traditionally strong cargo days than a year earlier, and a series of devastating hurricanes affected operations in the Americas.
      Even so, the analyst recorded a ”very high” yield increase of 12 percent YoY in USD-terms in September, while revenues were up 21.8 percent in USD.
      “The only region maintaining a YoY double-digit volume growth in September was Asia Pacific: +12.3 percent for outgoing and +11.3 percent for incoming business,” said WorldACD.
      “Through the first three quarters of the year, Asia Pacific (+14.2 percent) and Europe (+12.6 percent) remain the best performing areas in volume growth, consolidating their top positions in the world's air cargo business.
      “Asia Pacific can add the distinction that it is also the only area with double-digit yield growth YoY for each month in the period Jan-Sep. Where did most of the growing volumes go to? Four destinations account for 30 percent of the growth in 2017: China East, USA Midwest, Germany, and Japan.”

Drewry’s Jumped

      All of the above has been reflected in pricing movements—Drewry’s East-West Airfreight Price Index jumped over 10 cents to $2.68 in September, and the analyst surmised that October saw further gains.
      A reasonable assumption.

Asia Peak Rebound Solid

Paul Tsui Cathy Roberson     Multiple sources in Asia reported capacity shortages last months, not least in hubs such as Hong Kong and Beijing.
      With the peak season set to hit full stride, rates are set to rise further.
      “Costs are jumping through the roof both to Europe and U.S., and space is quite tight at the moment,” said Paul Tsui, managing director of Hong Kong-based forwarding and logistics operator Janel Group. “We expect the situation to remain like this until the end of December and freight rates shall increase further.”
      Cathy Roberson, founder and head analyst at U.S.-based Logistics Trends & Insights, takes a similar line. “Rates are rising and capacity is tightening and will remain tight throughout the peak season, thanks primarily to cross-border e-commerce,” she said.

UPS Projections & B747-8s

      “UPS commented on its recent earnings call that it took delivery this month of two 747-8 aircraft with another on the way this year,” Ms. Roberson said.
      “These three aircraft have already been placed on the Transpacific lane for peak season.
      “In addition, UPS noted that when testing the aircraft, it was packed. So the expectation is that these three aircraft will be full throughout the holiday season.”
      She reported that air freight rates were currently climbing and added: “The Transpacific will be extra busy thanks to U.S. consumer demand—consumer spending is up this year and will remain so thanks to a good U.S. economy.
      “Rumor has it that Amazon Prime Air has consolidated its U.S. cities to focus on heavy volume stations. I’m not sure what these heavy volume stations are, but I can imagine they are the usual suspects—NY, Amazon’s air hub in Ohio/KY, and either LA and/or the Seattle airport.
      “The outlook for 2018 will continue to be tight leading up to the Chinese New Year, which is February 16,” Cathy Roberson concluded.

Dinah Washington

Shawn ColeAll New Delta Cargo Web

  Delta Air Lines VP Cargo Shawn Cole turned on his computer recently and liked what he saw.
  The new www.delta.com is a game changer for us,” he said, noting that a new Delta Cargo website is “loaded with functionality including end-to-end digital booking, acceptance, and tracking 24/7 on laptops and mobile devices anywhere in the globe.”

Miami Keeping Cargo Track

Chris Mangos and Geoffrey ArendAn interesting number popped up at Air Cargo Americas. It was revealed that air cargo originating from and destined to MIA has an annual commercial value of $57.3 billion.
      Of course, air cargo people are used to hearing that. Although tonnage tends to be minor as compared to ocean, total value of shipments is always disproportionately on the side of goods shipped by air.
      But for Miami the numbers are even more startling, with air cargo representing 92 percent of Florida’s total air trade value and 40 percent of the state’s total (air & sea) trade values.

Metro Dade Debuts Flight Tracker

      On Thursday, November 2, Miami-Dade Aviation Department debuted its new, live online MIA Cargo Tracker in a demonstration at Air Cargo Americas. Aviation Director Emilio T. González and Florida Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association Executive Vice President Barbara Pimentel presented, with the first users of the MIA Cargo Flight Tracker in attendance.
      “MIA is the first U.S. airport to launch the web-based cargo flight information display system, which allows cargo shippers, freight forwarders, customs brokers, and logistics providers to easily view real-time cargo flight information on their mobile device while they are on the go,” Mr. Gonzalez said.
      “Cargo Tracker offering real time information is expected to save the local cargo industry valuable time and fuel costs when coordinating shipments at MIA.”

ATC Best Results In 30 Years

      ATC Aviation Services President Ingo Zimmer was situated in his stand at Air Cargo Americas, discussing strategies with longtime service partner “Bodacious”Jim Bellinder, United Airlines Cargo.
      “It’s been a very good year,” Ingo says. “We are proud to announce that we are moving toward opening new countries in Latin America, adding to our existing network of Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela.”
      Although Ingo is not ready to detail the countries, indications are that new destinations and services continue increasing unabated at ATC.
      “We have great partners like United Airlines, a top valued customer in Switzerland as example.
      “Elsewhere, Royal Air Maroc Cargo began operating its B737 freighter twice weekly from Frankfurt to Casablanca on November 2, 2017.
      “With this new all-cargo flight, customers will benefit from RAM’s extensive network within North and West Africa, as well as South America.
      “During the first quarter of 2018, Royal Air Maroc Cargo will also operate a new B767F, followed by two additional freighters within the next five years.”
      ATC Aviation Services is RAM’s General Sales Agent in Germany, Austria, and South America.
      Wrapping up 2017, Ingo was enthusiastic:
      “ATC in 2017 delivered our best results in 30 years,” he said.
      “We can’t wait for tomorrow because we look better every day.”

Lorena Lives Latin America
“It has been a great 2017 for all of us,” said Lorena Sandoval, Director FCLA Cargo Sales at American Airlines Cargo pictured (far right) with colleagues from left, Jennifer Stelling, Group Manager Marketing Strategy and Communications; Julie Johnson, Senior Analyst Business Development and Marketing and Lisa Oxentine, Managing Director Global & Key Accounts.
      “We are quite pleased to meet and greet our customers, the freight forwarders, visiting us here at Air Cargo Americas. The timing is perfect as this is high season for perishables, and as everybody knows, face-to-face is always the best way to communicate, whatever the season.
      “The conversation is about opportunities for 2018 and that is music to everyone,” Lorena declared.
      “Moving forward with the season and with the holidays just around the corner, we add flight capacities (Brazil, Chile, and elsewhere) moving, for example, our triple 7s from 200s to 300s, and that adds cargo lift. Give us an inch and we deliver a mile,” Lorena smiled.
      “I’m very confident and looking forward to 2018 with thanks to all our service partners and friends,” said Lorena Sandoval.

Face To Face At Air Cargo Americas

United Six Guys & A Gal

      Six Guys and a Gal… Looking every bit like a chorus line for air cargo, high-spirited folks from United Airlines fielded their Latin American team in Miami at Air Cargo Americas, including from left—Alonso Camacho P., GSA-Cargo Manager Costa Rica, Nicaragua & Honduras; Diego Subia, International Cargo Sales Manager, Ecuador; Jim Bellinder, Vice President Cargo Sales-Americas; Freddy Davila Navas, Sales Manager Latin America, Mexico-Caribbean, Central America; Oscar Castillo M., Account Executive Manager Cargo Sales Mexico Region and Andres, Torres, International Cargo Sales Manager, Colombia.
      Standout from the suits is Maddy Marrero, Senior Manager Regional Cargo Sales Latin America.
      Having moved from Continental to United, Maddy looks forward to continuing the excellent rebound year of 2017 through 2018.
      “We’re anticipating a year of growth and development in 2018,” United Cargo President Jan Krems said.
      “We plan to launch a product organization that will focus on all aspects of new product development, enhancements to our current services, and centralized management of our current offerings.”

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If You Missed Any Of The Previous 3 Issues Of FlyingTypers
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Access specific articles by clicking on article title
Vol. 16 No. 87
I Left My Hat in Haiti
Chuckles for October 30, 2017
AFKLMP Ups Bellies
I Got The Horse Right Here
IAG Cargo Up
Lufthansa Cool
American Airlines Cargo #PuertoRicoStrong
Paige Air Cargo For Atlanta
Vol. 16 No. 88
Air & Sea Cargo Americas This Week
Chuckles for November 1, 2017
Jan Krems World of Wonder
Turkish Cargo Is Unstoppable
The New Journalism

Vol. 16 No. 89
Voice of the Shipper at Air Cargo Americas
Chuckles for November 3, 2017
A Heart In Frisco
LATAM Finds Another Joy
Air Cargo Americas Goes to the Dogs
Katya Powers Air Cargo Americas

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